Introduction
As of October 10, 2025, the Chinese real estate market continues to face significant challenges, with the National Day holiday transaction data painting a grim picture. Despite various policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market, both new and second-hand housing markets are experiencing substantial declines. This article analyzes the latest trends, underlying causes, and the broader economic context shaping the current state of China’s property sector.
National Day Holiday Transaction Data: A Bleak Outlook
The real estate market during the 2025 National Day holiday was notably lackluster. According to data from the Linping Living Big Data Research Institute, the average daily transaction volume for new homes in 14 major cities was just 449 units, a staggering 27.2% drop compared to the same period last year. This decline is significant, especially considering the extended "double festival" holiday in 2024.
The second-hand housing market performed even worse, with an average daily transaction volume of only 239 units across eight key cities, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38%. The data underscores a broader trend of market stagnation, with the second-hand market suffering more severely than the new home sector.
Broader Market Trends
The National Day figures align with broader trends observed throughout 2025. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August, national commodity housing sales area fell by 4.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, data from the China Index Academy shows that the sales of the top 100 real estate companies dropped by 12.2% from January to September. While these declines are milder compared to the previous year’s drops of 18% and 23.6% for sales area and value, respectively, the National Day data suggests a reversal to sharper declines.
The second-hand market faces additional pressures, with high listing volumes but dwindling buyer interest. Falling price expectations and a lack of confidence in the market have created a vicious cycle: sellers lower prices, buyers wait for further drops, and the market remains stagnant. This dynamic is exacerbated by concerns that purchasing now could lead to further losses if prices continue to decline.
Policy Context and Market Dynamics
Throughout 2025, policy measures have aimed to stabilize the real estate market. Initiatives such as relaxed purchase restrictions, lower down payments, and interest rate reductions were rolled out in previous years, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2024, which temporarily boosted transaction volumes. However, this year’s policy efforts have been limited, with only a modest 10-basis-point cut in the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) compared to a cumulative 60-basis-point reduction in 2024. This lack of significant stimulus, combined with the high base effect from last year’s policy-driven surge, has contributed to the current downturn.
Another factor impacting the National Day data is the surge in tourism. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, domestic tourist trips reached 888 million during the 2025 holiday, a 1.23 billion increase from the previous year. This shift in consumer behavior reflects a preference for experiential spending over long-term investments like real estate, particularly as housing prices continue to decline and the rent-to-price ratio diminishes.
Structural Challenges and Shifting Consumer Sentiment
The real estate market’s struggles are not solely due to economic or policy factors; a deeper issue is the erosion of consumer confidence. Historically, buying a home in China was seen as a reliable path to wealth accumulation. However, continuous price declines have shifted buyer sentiment, with many now believing that renting is a better option or that waiting for further price drops is prudent. This mindset has made it difficult for transaction volumes to recover.
Developers, facing financial pressures, have limited room to offer substantial discounts. While some promotional activities occurred during the National Day holiday, they failed to generate significant demand, as buyers perceived the discounts as insufficient. The market is caught in a structural dilemma: developers cannot sustain prices, yet price reductions fail to stimulate demand due to pervasive pessimism.
Regional Variations: A K-Shaped Market
Despite the overall downturn, some bright spots exist. For instance, Beijing saw a 50.5% year-on-year increase in new home transactions during the holiday, with an average of 52 units sold daily. This resilience in first-tier cities like Beijing is driven by strong population inflows, concentrated job opportunities, and access to premium resources, which sustain demand. In contrast, third- and fourth-tier cities face severe challenges, including population outflows, high inventory levels, and weak expectations, resulting in near-frozen transaction volumes.
This divergence highlights a K-shaped market trajectory: first-tier cities show slight improvement or stability, second- and third-tier cities struggle to maintain equilibrium, and lower-tier cities continue to decline. The overall market remains cold, with rising cities being the exception rather than the norm.
Why the Market Struggles: A Deeper Analysis
Several factors contribute to the current state of the real estate market:
- High Base Effect from 2024: Last year’s aggressive policy measures created a temporary boom in transactions, setting a high benchmark that 2025 has failed to meet due to limited new stimulus.
- Shift in Consumer Priorities: The tourism surge during the National Day holiday reflects a broader shift toward experiential consumption, reducing interest in long-term assets like property.
- Erosion of Confidence: Falling prices and declining returns on real estate have diminished its appeal as a wealth-building tool, with buyers increasingly skeptical about future appreciation.
- Policy Fatigue: While policies like the financial 16-point plan and real estate financing coordination mechanisms exist, their implementation has been inconsistent, limiting their effectiveness.
The Role of Policy and Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the likelihood of large-scale rescue policies in the near term appears low. Several reasons support this view:
- Shift in Development Priorities: The government is focusing on stabilizing capital markets and fostering technological innovation to drive economic growth. Real estate, once a key economic driver, is no longer seen as a viable engine due to high household leverage (around 62%) and declining birth rates, which reduce long-term demand.
- Perceived Market Stabilization: Official data suggests that the real estate market is stabilizing, with declining sales volumes moderating compared to previous years. Policymakers aim for a “soft landing” by maintaining liquidity and spreading losses across multiple parties to avoid systemic financial risks.
- Focus on Existing Policies: The central bank has emphasized the need to fully implement existing measures, such as the real estate enterprise whitelist and inventory management strategies, rather than introducing new stimulus.
The government’s current strategy involves redirecting resources toward capital market development and technological innovation. A thriving stock market can provide wealth effects to boost consumer spending, while innovation in fields like AI, renewable energy, and aerospace is seen as critical for economic and national security. Diverting resources back to real estate risks undermining these priorities, as the sector’s “siphon effect” could draw funds away from more strategic areas.
Opportunities for Buyers
Despite the market’s challenges, the current environment offers opportunities for prospective buyers. With higher inventory levels and greater bargaining power, buyers can negotiate better deals. However, the overall outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 remains cautious, with transaction volumes likely to remain subdued unless significant policy interventions occur.
Potential Future Policy Directions
While immediate large-scale interventions are unlikely, future policy shifts are possible, particularly after the capital markets stabilize and the 15th Five-Year Plan progresses. The central bank’s recent mention of “improving the real estate financial foundation system” and “building a new model for real estate development” suggests potential innovations, such as specialized financial institutions to handle real estate acquisition, financing, and risk mitigation. These measures could address systemic pressures in the sector more effectively.
Conclusion
The 2025 National Day holiday data confirms the ongoing challenges in China’s real estate market, driven by declining confidence, shifting consumer priorities, and limited policy stimulus. While first-tier cities show some resilience, the broader market remains in a downturn, with third- and fourth-tier cities facing the most significant struggles. The government’s focus on capital markets and technological innovation signals a strategic shift away from real estate as an economic driver. For now, policymakers are likely to prioritize the effective implementation of existing measures over new stimulus, aiming for a controlled “soft landing” to mitigate systemic risks. For buyers, this presents a window of opportunity, but the market’s recovery will depend on restoring confidence and addressing structural challenges in the long term.
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